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Nvidia’s Record Highs and Mega AI Deals Fuel Boom as Bubble Warnings Mount

Fresh megadeals push valuations higher, sharpening concerns over vendor‑style financing and a highly concentrated AI trade.

Overview

  • Nvidia touched all‑time highs near a $4.5 trillion market cap, now roughly 8% of the S&P 500, as AI capex and data‑center commitments keep accelerating.
  • Microsoft agreed to an up to $19.4 billion pact with Amsterdam‑based Nebius for more than 100,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs and has about $33 billion in similar neocloud commitments to lock in compute.
  • OpenAI’s reported valuation reached $500 billion via a $6.6 billion employee share sale, and Nvidia is reported to be planning a $100 billion OpenAI investment that analysts say raises circular‑funding concerns.
  • Meta outlined up to $72 billion in 2025 capital spending focused on AI and secured $29 billion in financing for a new Louisiana data center as it scales infrastructure and products such as Business AI.
  • Analysts warn that leverage, vendor financing and market concentration pose rising risks, with Investopedia highlighting higher borrowing costs and Washington Post analysis noting household exposure through 401(k)s.