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Nvidia’s Earnings Loom With China Uncertainty Testing AI Boom

Investor focus has shifted to guidance clarity under new U.S. licensing plus Chinese procurement pressures.

An NVIDIA logo and a computer motherboard appear in this illustration taken August 25, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
A smartphone with a displayed NVIDIA logo is placed on a computer motherboard in this illustration taken March 6, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, said the company was in talks with the US over its offering to China

Overview

  • Wall Street expects roughly $46 billion in quarterly revenue and about $1.00 to $1.02 in EPS, with most analysts rating the stock a buy.
  • Options markets imply about a 6% post-report swing, or roughly a $260 billion move in market value.
  • Nvidia agreed to pay 15% of China chip revenue for export licenses, a structure analysts say could trim gross margin by about one point overall on China-bound sales.
  • Reports describe Chinese regulators pressing local firms over H20 purchases and suppliers pausing H20-related work, while a circulated Jefferies note alleging an official H20 ban remains unconfirmed.
  • Analysts expect management to guide conservatively on China and emphasize the Blackwell ramp, with some projecting no H20 contribution in the outlook.