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Nvidia’s Alpamayo Debuts at CES as Tesla Downplays Near-Term Threat to FSD

Musk projects serious FSD rivalry several years away, citing scaling plus long‑tail safety challenges.

Overview

  • Nvidia introduced Alpamayo as a reasoning‑based AI stack for autonomous driving and showed a real‑world demo on San Francisco streets.
  • Jensen Huang described Alpamayo as a foundation for safe, scalable autonomy designed to handle rare scenarios and explain driving decisions.
  • Elon Musk said he is not losing sleep over the rollout, noted it is easy to reach roughly 99% performance, and warned the long tail remains hard.
  • Musk estimated Nvidia could take about nine months to make the system operational at scale and suggested meaningful competitive pressure may be 5–6 years away or longer.
  • Mercedes‑Benz plans to ship vehicles using Nvidia’s driver‑assist technology this year, while NHTSA continues an investigation into Tesla FSD over reported signal and lane‑handling issues with a response due Jan. 19.