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Nvidia’s AI Lead Faces Fresh Tests as Stock Pulls Back and Rivals Step Up

Investors now question the durability of its margins given hyperscalers’ shift to custom chips.

Overview

  • Shares have fallen about 17% from late‑October highs to roughly $175, trimming the market value to around $4.3–$4.5 trillion as enthusiasm cools for AI‑linked trades.
  • Fiscal Q3 revenue reached $57 billion with data‑center sales of $51.2 billion up 66% year over year, and management guided about $65 billion for Q4 as Jensen Huang said Blackwell cloud GPUs are sold out.
  • BofA reiterated a Buy with a $275 target, saying Nvidia’s GPUs are a full generation ahead and highlighting roadmap visibility to Rubin in 2026, while broader analyst targets center near $250.
  • Competition is intensifying as Alphabet and Amazon advance custom silicon, Broadcom expands bespoke accelerators, and AMD pushes alternatives that could pressure Nvidia’s pricing and share over time.
  • U.S. regulators have allowed limited H200 sales into China, partially reopening that market, yet export controls and geopolitical uncertainty remain material risks to long‑term growth.