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Nvidia’s AI Lead Draws Fresh Upgrades as Big-Compute Financing Emerges and Bubble Warnings Intensify

Investors rotate toward adjacent AI plays to balance AI upside versus growing policy, concentration, financing and export risks.

Overview

  • Nvidia’s market value hovers near $4.4–$4.5 trillion as banks reiterate bullish views, with Cantor lifting its target and Morgan Stanley and Mizuho maintaining positive ratings.
  • Mizuho estimates Nvidia holds more than 95% share in AI training and inference chips, and Morgan Stanley says the AMDOpenAI tie-up does not alter Nvidia’s full‑stack advantage.
  • Bloomberg reporting says Elon Musk’s xAI is pursuing a $20 billion lease‑to‑own deal for Nvidia chips via a Valor SPV using $7.5 billion in equity and $12.5 billion in debt, with Nvidia contributing $2 billion in equity to the vehicle.
  • Nvidia continues to face policy headwinds, including a disclosed $5.5 billion charge tied to H20 inventory and U.S. export limits on advanced chips to China.
  • Professional investors are reallocating away from the most crowded AI megacaps toward next‑in‑line beneficiaries, echoing dotcom‑era tactics as economists such as Jared Bernstein caution about bubble‑style wealth risks.