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Nvidia’s AI Dominance Confronts New Rivals as Lofty Targets Stoke Valuation Debate

A towering valuation complicates future gains despite still-robust AI demand.

Overview

  • Nvidia reported $57 billion in fiscal Q3 revenue with $51.2 billion from data centers, up 66% year over year.
  • Nvidia is estimated to control about 90% of data‑center GPUs, bolstered by its CUDA software ecosystem.
  • Alphabet and Amazon are advancing custom accelerators and AMD is pushing lower‑cost GPU alternatives as hyperscalers plan even higher 2026 capex.
  • Profitability remains exceptional with roughly $32 billion in net income and about a 56% net margin, though cost of revenue jumped about 71% to keep pace with demand.
  • Analyst views diverge: Evercore’s Mark Lipacis sees roughly 95% upside in 2026, while a separate forecast projects a possible path to a $20 trillion market cap by 2030, even as others highlight the challenge of outsized gains from a roughly $4.5 trillion base.