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Nvidia Surges to $4.3 Trillion Valuation, Extends Lead Over Microsoft

A surge in AI data center demand underpins Nvidia’s valuation ahead of expected U.S. approval to resume China chip exports

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Overview

  • Nvidia reached a $4.3 trillion market cap on Monday, widening its gap with Microsoft by $500 billion as shares closed at $176.75.
  • The data center division generated $39.1 billion in Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue—89% of total sales—and consistently delivers around a 40% operating margin.
  • The U.S. government has assured Nvidia that its export license to resume H2O AI chip sales to China will be approved, potentially restoring an estimated $8 billion in deferred quarterly revenue.
  • Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Timm Schulze-Melander raised his price target to $192 and consensus forecasts call for Nvidia’s revenue to grow at a 31.5% CAGR through fiscal 2028.
  • A UN Trade and Development report projects the global AI market will expand from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033, supporting long-term GPU demand.