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Nvidia Projects 70% Year‑Ahead Growth but Says Memory Shortages Are the Binding Limit

Memory shortages that cap shipments mean Nvidia's unprecedented revenue forecast depends on securing scarce components.

Overview

  • Nvidia reported record fiscal Q2 revenue of $96.22 billion and guided to about 70% year‑ahead revenue growth after the Aug. 26 earnings release, a forecast that reflects what the company can make rather than what customers want.
  • Management says shortages of high‑bandwidth memory and other components, not demand, are limiting shipments and the company has more than doubled supply commitments and spent tens of billions to lock capacity.
  • Nvidia is widening its platform lead with Vera Rubin GPUs that deliver roughly 4,000 TFLOPS and a growing CPU business—Grace has passed $5 billion in trailing revenue and the company sees about $20 billion of server‑CPU demand this fiscal year.
  • Rivals and partners are scaling fast: Broadcom, AMD and Intel reported large AI revenue gains and multiyear targets that signal the AI infrastructure market will be contested even as Nvidia expands from accelerators into full server platforms.
  • The tight supply picture gives memory makers and packaging vendors pricing power, raises near‑term margin pressure and counterparty exposure from Nvidia's big pre‑payments, and makes shipments, memory prices and export controls the key variables to watch next.