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Nvidia Fortifies AI Inference Edge With $20 Billion Groq Deal as 2026 Capex Surges Loom

Major brokerages reaffirm a positive outlook, citing sustained hyperscaler investment alongside a persistent compute shortfall.

Overview

  • Nvidia said it will pay about $20 billion in cash to license Groq’s technology and hire its core engineering team, a move aimed at boosting real‑time inference performance.
  • Shares rose roughly 1.5% on the announcement, lifting Nvidia’s market value past $4.6 trillion during the quiet post‑holiday session.
  • CEO Jensen Huang previously said the company is “sold out” of cloud GPUs, and industry data indicate an “Inference Flip” in 2025 with usage revenue surpassing training.
  • Hyperscalers spent roughly $400 billion on AI‑related capex in 2025, and consensus now pegs 2026 spending near $527 billion, reinforcing demand for advanced chips.
  • Analysts kept favorable stances into 2026—Bernstein reiterated Outperform and Cantor named Nvidia a top pick—while Raymond James flagged potential upside from U.S. approvals for H200 sales to approved customers in China and Chinese GPU IPOs like MetaX’s 700% surge stirred short‑term volatility.