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Nvidia Faces Market-Defining Earnings Test as AI Trade Awaits Guidance

Investors await proof that Nvidia can top lofty forecasts to keep the AI trade intact.

Overview

  • Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results after Wednesday’s close, with consensus near $54.8 billion in revenue and about $1.25 in non-GAAP EPS, and gross margin expected around the mid-73% range.
  • Wall Street says the pivotal factor is the fourth-quarter outlook, where estimates cluster around $61.3–$61.6 billion and a guide above roughly $61.5 billion is viewed as necessary to validate sustained AI spending.
  • Options pricing points to a roughly 6%–8% post-earnings swing as traders weigh the high bar for a beat-and-raise against recent volatility and concerns about overinvestment in AI infrastructure.
  • Analysts broadly reiterate bullish calls and higher targets into the print, while JPMorgan highlights a short-dated call-spread as a way to position for an upside move if results and supply commentary clear expectations.
  • Key risks on the call include U.S. export limits that kept China-bound H20 shipments out of guidance, accelerating competition from AMD and in-house chips, and scrutiny of chip depreciation practices spotlighted by Michael Burry.