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Nvidia Extends AI Lead as Analysts Lift Targets and Blackwell Execution Becomes the Pivot

Analysts cite execution on the Blackwell ramp as the key test for 2026.

Overview

  • Wolfe Research named Nvidia its top AI pick for 2026 with an Outperform rating and Jefferies raised its price target to $275, highlighting valuation support and a robust product cycle.
  • The White House’s 25% tariff on certain advanced chips is expected to weigh on H200 exports to China, where Nvidia had previously estimated potential shipments of $2 billion to $5 billion per quarter subject to approvals.
  • Reporting indicates Nvidia has secured a large share of TSMC’s advanced packaging capacity, with the foundry expanding output through 2026 to help ease prior CoWoS-related bottlenecks.
  • The roadmap remains on track with Blackwell ramping now and Vera Rubin slated for a second‑half 2026 launch, as investors watch for clear shipment schedules and upgrade cadence.
  • Beyond core chips, Nvidia is deepening software and industry reach, expanding its BioNeMo life‑sciences platform and launching a $1 billion, five‑year joint lab with Eli Lilly that will use next‑generation Rubin hardware.