Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Nvidia Earnings Tonight Poise Markets for an AI Reality Check

Options point to a sharp move as investors gauge whether heavy AI spending and stretched valuations have durable support.

Overview

  • Shares are set for an after-hours test with options implying roughly a 7% move, which Reuters notes would be the company’s largest one-day market value swing implied by earnings in its history.
  • Analysts expect revenue of about $54.9 billion for the August–October quarter with year-over-year growth above 50% and some narrowing in gross margins, according to LSEG data.
  • Nvidia’s outsized footprint in major indexes — roughly 8% of the S&P 500 — makes the update a key barometer for market direction after a tech-led pullback.
  • Regulatory filings show Peter Thiel’s fund exited its Nvidia stake in Q3 and SoftBank sold its position days earlier, reinforcing caution around elevated AI valuations.
  • Debate over the sustainability of AI capex looms large, with estimates of nearly $3 trillion in spend through 2028, funding gaps flagged by analysts, concentrated demand from hyperscalers, and a tense macro backdrop of Fed minutes and delayed jobs data.