Federal Police Probes of Lulinha and Marcola Reshape Brazil’s 2026 Campaign Narrative

Overview

• The Federal Police are investigating Fábio Luís Lula da Silva (Lulinha) and Marco Aurélio Ribeiro (Marcola) for possible influence peddling tied to cannabidiol sales and schemes connected to the INSS, and those probes remain developing and unproven.
• Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign is using PF reports to argue corruption reached the presidential circle while PT allies, including Fernando Haddad, have publicly called for full and independent investigations and defended broad freedom for the PF and prosecutors to act.
• Judicial and electoral moves are active: a partial lifting of secrecy in a Maranhão probe produced depositions that implicate Governor Carlos Brandão, the TRE-BA ordered Meta to hand over account data for a viral video linking Lula to ACM Neto, and the MP-RJ asked courts to enforce Anthony Garotinho’s final improbity conviction and suspend his political rights.
• State campaign dynamics are shifting on the ground with Garotinho naming a third running mate, André Monteiro, and polling showing movement in São Paulo Senate and governor races that complicate national messaging for both Lula’s coalition and rival tickets.
• The unfolding investigations and court rulings are likely to shape advertising, legal challenges and voter perceptions in the run up to October, so the next key developments to watch are PF findings made public, formal charges or dismissals, and final electoral court rulings.