Overview

• The National Safety Council projects a central estimate of 424 fatalities for the holiday period, with a 90% prediction range of 365 to 487.
• NSC bases its forecast on 2018–2023 data showing roughly 12.1% of September traffic deaths occur over Labor Day, applying statistical models to current trends.
• This year’s projection is 7% lower than last year’s estimate, yet experts still rank Labor Day among the deadliest U.S. holiday travel weekends, often second to July 4.
• The council urges planning a sober ride, never driving impaired, and buckling up, noting seat belts are about 45% effective at preventing fatalities for front-seat car occupants.
• Safety agencies coordinate holiday enforcement and public education campaigns such as Drive Sober or Get Pulled Over, though the intensity of checkpoints and patrols varies by state.