Overview
- Energy economists including Manuel Frondel of RWI and Andreas Löschel warned in November 2026 that planned gas-fired plants meant to replace brown‑coal output are running behind schedule and may not be ready when coal generation ends.
- Frondel and others estimate the new gas units could come online roughly two years after NRW’s 2030 brown‑coal exit, creating a realistic risk of electricity shortfalls in the winters of 2031 and 2032.
- Experts say the shortfall would raise wholesale and retail power prices and could force the government to delay or reverse the accelerated coal‑exit timetable to avoid outages.
- Project delays are linked to long permitting and construction lead times and the pace and results of the reserve‑gas auctions that NRW is using to secure replacement capacity.
- Brown coal currently supplies steady baseload power in NRW, so the transition requires careful sequencing; analysts urge the state to reassess timing, auction design, and grid planning to protect supply and consumers.