Overview

• About 13.7 million people aged 16 and over vote on Sunday for councils and directly elected mayors and district chiefs across NRW, with many runoffs expected on 28 September.
• A final pre‑election Forsa trend puts the CDU near 32 percent, the SPD around 22, the Greens and AfD at about 14 each, Die Linke at 6, and FDP and BSW in the low single digits.
• Analysts and local officials see the AfD poised for notable gains in former SPD strongholds in the Ruhrgebiet such as Gelsenkirchen, Duisburg and Hagen, though limited candidate supply could blunt results and coalition isolation may curb victories.
• Interior Minister Herbert Reul reported 1,723 politically motivated offenses statewide since August 2024 as parties ramped up campaigning, while many long‑serving incumbents are stepping down and opening high‑profile races in cities like Cologne.
• On the eve of the vote, Merz campaigned in Düsseldorf and signaled adjustments to campaign tactics and issue focus after the count, as national polling shows weak support for the federal coalition and elevated AfD backing.