Overview

• In Thuringia, an Insa survey conducted 2–9 September puts the AfD under Björn Höcke at 37% ahead of the CDU, with BSW slipping to about 9% and the party classified as right‑wing extremist by the state intelligence service.
• In Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, SPD leader Manuela Schwesig says she will seek a third term despite polling around 21% versus the AfD near 29%, as the federal plan to classify the AfD as a confirmed extremist effort remains paused pending the party’s lawsuit.
• Ahead of Sunday’s NRW municipal vote, the AfD appears thin on the ground, contesting mayoral races in roughly 23% of municipalities and fielding far fewer local candidates than CDU and SPD, which limits conversion of support into offices; many races are expected to go to 28 September runoffs.
• Analysts say the party could gain in Ruhrgebiet cities such as Gelsenkirchen, Duisburg and Hagen from a low 2020 baseline, but note it lacks municipal partners and experience and is likely to be outpaced by established parties on perceived local competence.
• A new Civey Bayern‑Monitor shows the CSU at about 40% statewide with the AfD near 20% as the second‑strongest party, underscoring regional strength for the AfD despite varied prospects at the local level.