Overview

• A Texas Southern University poll released Aug. 19 shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by 5 points, down from a 9-point edge in May, with the poll’s co-director saying Cornyn has substantially narrowed the gap.
• An Aug. 15 NRSC memo urges donors to consolidate behind Cornyn and cites an Emerson College survey showing a statistical tie at 30%–29% with 37% undecided.
• Analysts point to Cornyn’s advertising push and financial edge as key drivers, with filings showing $19.4 million in cash on hand for Cornyn and allies versus $4.35 million for Paxton through Q2.
• The NRSC argues Paxton’s support is overstated and vulnerable as voters weigh his legal and personal controversies, while Cornyn’s standing improves with increased positive exposure.
• Paxton’s campaign dismisses the recent polling narrative and asserts he leads in many surveys, as both campaigns continue courting a potentially decisive endorsement from President Trump.