Overview
- The National Retail Federation says core retail sales rose 0.6% in October from September after a 0.5% decline, up about 5% year over year with digital goods, clothing and sporting goods leading.
- NRF forecasts November–December sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2% to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.
- Despite record-low consumer sentiment, NRF leaders say shoppers continue to spend and intend to prioritize gifts and value-focused purchases.
- Seasonal hiring is projected at 265,000 to 365,000 positions, down sharply from 442,000 last year.
- Retailers report well-stocked shelves after pulling imports forward to navigate higher tariffs, with lighter late-year imports and aggressive promotions expected as the federal shutdown limits official data.