NRF Predicts Moderate Retail Sales Growth for 2024 Amid Economic Shifts

The National Retail Federation forecasts a 2.5% to 3.5% increase in U.S. retail sales, reflecting consumer resilience despite rising credit costs and inflation.

• Retail sales in the U.S. are expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024, in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average.
• The NRF anticipates GDP growth to slow to 2.3%, with inflation moderating to 2.2% and unemployment averaging at 4%.
• Consumer spending trends include a shift towards services and personal care, with online and non-store sales projected to grow between 7% and 9%.
• The NRF highlights the 'wealth effect' from rising home and stock prices as a key driver of consumer spending.
• Shoppers' expectations on retail prices are becoming more positive, with a decrease in the percentage of consumers anticipating ongoing inflation.

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