Overview
- The National Retail Federation projects November–December sales of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, a 3.7% to 4.2% increase over 2024 that excludes autos, gasoline and restaurants.
- Seasonal hiring is expected at 265,000 to 365,000 positions versus 442,000 last year, reflecting a softer labor market, heavier cost controls and some October hiring pull-forward.
- NRF leaders say shoppers are trading down and waiting for promotions, with higher‑income households accounting for a larger share of discretionary spending.
- A record-length federal government shutdown has paused official jobs and retail data for 37 days, forcing heavier reliance on private indicators as tariffs and inflation add uncertainty.
- Other outlooks signal more muted gains, including Mastercard’s 3.6% growth through Dec. 24, Deloitte’s 2.9%–3.4% for Nov.–Jan., and Adobe’s online sales forecast of $253.4 billion, up 5.3%.