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Novelis Plant Fire Puts Ford on Track for Up to $1 Billion Earnings Hit

Analysts attribute the projected hit to a prolonged shutdown of NovelisOswego hot mill that constrains automotive aluminum supply.

Overview

  • Novelis told reporters its Oswego, New York hot mill will keep much of the plant offline until the first quarter of 2026 after the Sept. 16 fire.
  • Evercore ISI estimates a $500 million to $1 billion EBIT impact for Ford, and the automaker’s shares fell about 6%–7% after the news.
  • Ford says a dedicated team is working with Novelis and exploring alternative sources to limit disruptions, with details expected when it reports results later this month.
  • Novelis is redirecting material from plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea, but U.S. aluminum imports face a 50% tariff that could raise costs.
  • Other automakers that source from Novelis, including Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai and Stellantis, are assessing exposure, with Toyota indicating it can meet needs through alternate suppliers.