Overview

• Norway leads Group I with 15 points and a +21 goal difference after the 11-1 win over Moldova, while Italy sits second on 9 points with a game in hand and a +5 goal difference.
• To finish first, Italy must win all four remaining matches and rely on Norway dropping points against Israel or Estonia and losing the return meeting, with goal difference serving as the primary tiebreaker.
• Direct qualification has become unlikely because even a level finish on points would currently favor Norway on goal difference.
• If second, Italy would enter UEFA’s playoffs featuring 12 group runners-up and four Nations League group winners, played as single-leg semifinals and finals on 26 and 31 March 2026.
• Italy is widely expected to be seeded and host its semifinal, and simulations highlight possible opponents such as Northern Ireland, North Macedonia and Moldova, with Germany rated a low-probability matchup.