Overview

• The Norwegian Nobel Institute launched an internal review as authorities opened an inquiry into unusual wagers tied to this year’s Peace Prize.
• Polymarket odds for María Corina Machado jumped from about 3% shortly after midnight in Norway to above 70% within hours before the 10:50 a.m. announcement.
• Trading data shows the user “dirtycup” staked roughly $68,000–$70,000 on Machado and made about $30,000, with two other accounts bringing combined profits near $90,000.
• Norwegian outlets Aftenposten and Finansavisen flagged newly created or single-focus accounts and the timing of the bets as indicators of possible inside knowledge.
• Nobel director Kristian Berg Harpviken said the institute may have been prey to a criminal actor, while no charges have been announced and Polymarket is facing renewed scrutiny over past regulatory issues.