Overview
- NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center maintains a geomagnetic storm watch for Oct. 16–17, with peak activity expected overnight and a chance of residual G1 storming on Friday.
- Aurora could be visible in roughly 12–16 U.S. states from Washington and Idaho to New York and Maine, with additional chances across Canada and northern UK regions.
- Models project Kp near 5, occasionally up to 6, consistent with a G1–G2 (minor to moderate) event.
- Multiple CMEs launched Oct. 11–13—many tied to active sunspot AR4246—may arrive in quick succession, a stacking that can boost effects but complicates exact timing.
- Forecasters flag manageable risks to radio and satellite systems and advise dark-sky viewing, monitoring NOAA’s 30‑minute aurora tools, and watching the Bz orientation for real-time odds.