Overview
- The India Meteorological Department said on Monday that conditions favour the northeast monsoon starting over the southern peninsula within two to three days and an upper-air circulation over the South Andaman Sea is likely to form a low over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13.
- The IMD forecasts a prolonged five- to six-day wet spell with isolated heavy rainfall for Kerala, Mahe, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and coastal Andhra Pradesh between October 15 and 18 and spotty heavy showers in parts of Rayalaseema and north interior Karnataka on specified dates.
- Private forecaster Skymet agrees a low-pressure area will spread rain across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka from about October 14–19 but says the system’s low-latitude track near the equator makes intensification into a tropical storm unlikely.
- The weather change comes as the southwest monsoon continues to withdraw and the IMD warns of unsettled weather, thunderstorms and gusty winds in parts of northern and eastern India, raising the chance of isolated heavy showers and localized disruption.
- This onset follows a below-normal southwest monsoon this year (about 12.6% below average) and arrives while the World Meteorological Organization projects a strengthening El Niño peaking around December 2026, a background that could affect rainfall totals and crop and flood risks in the months ahead.