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Nominal U.S. Home Prices Rise but Real Values Keep Dropping

Rising mortgage rates have driven more listings and record price cuts, leaving it unclear if lower asks will turn into more sales.

Overview

  • Case‑Shiller data released late September showed national home prices rose 1.9% year over year in July, marking a fifth straight monthly pickup in nominal terms.
  • Inflation outpaced that gain so real home values fell for the 14th consecutive month, with July’s 3.4% CPI reading exceeding the 1.9% price rise.
  • Financing costs tightened after the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 rate hike and the 30‑year mortgage rate climbed to about 7% by Sept. 24, which eroded buyers’ purchasing power.
  • Pending contracts edged up 0.3% in August but remain below year‑ago levels and roughly 30% below pandemic‑era activity, even as active listings rose and the share of listings with price cuts hit a September record of about 20.8%.
  • Markets are diverging by metro: Chicago showed strong annual gains while Seattle, Las Vegas and Denver lagged, and differences in index methods and seasonal timing mean short‑term readings can vary across sources.