Overview

• Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was confirmed as the 2025 Peace Prize laureate and was notified at 10:50 Norwegian time.
• On Polymarket, her contract spiked from about 3.75% to roughly 73% within two hours overnight after months in low single digits.
• Norwegian media and platform trackers flagged single wagers around $65,000–$68,000, including a $68,117 bet by the account known as @dirtycup.
• Some winning profiles were created shortly before the trades, and reporting indicates combined profits of about $90,000 across a small set of accounts.
• Nobel leaders called the activity potentially criminal and said it is too early to confirm a leak as Norwegian authorities launch a formal investigation.