Overview

• Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for pro‑democracy activism.
• Hours before the Oslo announcement, Polymarket odds for Machado spiked from roughly 3.75% to about 72.8%, driven by concentrated wagers.
• Trading records show multiple large bets, including a user known as “dirtycup” staking about $68,000–$70,000 and netting roughly $30,000, with three accounts profiting around $90,000 combined.
• The Nobel Institute has launched an internal investigation and alerted Norwegian authorities, calling the episode a serious breach and saying it is too early to be certain of the source.
• Officials say the pattern points to a likely espionage effort, renewing scrutiny of prediction markets such as Polymarket, which previously faced U.S. regulatory action by the CFTC in 2022.