Overview

• Norwegian Nobel Committee deputy leader Asle Toje said influence campaigns tend to backfire because the five-member panel prizes independent deliberation.
• Reuters cited historians who argue Trump’s support for Israel in the Gaza war, outreach to Vladimir Putin, and confrontations with allies conflict with Alfred Nobel’s vision of advancing fellowship among nations.
• A Washington Post–Ipsos poll in mid-September found 76% of U.S. adults believe Trump does not deserve the prize.
• Analysts expect the Oct. 10 announcement to favor humanitarian agencies, U.N. institutions, or press-freedom groups, with possibilities including UNHCR, UNICEF, the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, CPJ, and Reporters Without Borders.
• Experts say only a clear, verifiable peace breakthrough — such as ending the Gaza war or securing a Russia–Ukraine settlement — would make him a serious contender, a view echoed by European leaders.