Overview
- Forecasters expect a G3 geomagnetic storm with a chance of G4 when the CME arrives late Jan. 19 into early Jan. 20, with Kp values projected near 8.
- Auroral visibility could extend across roughly 24 to 28 U.S. states from the northern tier into some mid‑latitudes, with additional potential in Canada and parts of the UK per the Met Office.
- The storm’s reach hinges on short‑term solar‑wind conditions, especially the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz; a sustained southward Bz typically enables stronger, more widespread displays.
- Peak viewing is most likely between about 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time with activity possibly lingering toward dawn, and the new moon offers darker skies if cloud cover cooperates.
- NOAA’s 30‑minute aurora forecast, SpaceWeatherLive, and aurora apps provide real‑time updates, and smartphone night modes or long exposures can reveal faint auroras not obvious to the eye.