Overview
- Late July reports from NOAA and major weather services say the El Niño has begun and there is better than an 80 percent chance it will become a very strong event.
- Observed sea‑surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already about 1°C above normal and model ensembles show pathways that could produce local anomalies up to 3–4°C.
- Climate researchers say the event is acting as an amplifier for current heatwaves, making hot spells hotter even if it is not the sole cause.
- Experts warn that disrupted sowing and harvests for crops such as cotton, soy, maize, cocoa, sugar and coffee could push up commodity prices and strain food supplies.
- Long‑range runs suggest a higher chance of Arctic circulation changes that can bring colder, snowy spells to parts of Europe in winter 2026/27, but scientists emphasize that seasonal forecasts remain uncertain and outcomes will vary by region.