Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirms a weak La Niña as the main driver of the 2025–2026 season with about a 51% chance of persisting through December to February.
- Seasonal outlooks indicate a split pattern with warmer-than-normal conditions in the South, California and much of the East, contrasted by colder anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest.
- Precipitation probabilities favor wetter conditions across the northern Rockies and Great Lakes and a drier setup in the Southeast, aligning with typical La Niña signals.
- An ongoing Pacific marine heatwave, together with shifts in large-scale patterns such as the NAO and AO, could modulate storm tracks and increase forecast uncertainty.
- An active start has already brought NWS snow and cold warnings, and CPC guidance for Nov. 19–23 calls for below-normal temperatures in the West and slightly above-normal readings in the central and eastern U.S. as forecasters watch for additional Arctic intrusions.