Overview

• The updated August 7 outlook calls for 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes and 2–5 major hurricanes for the June through November season.
• NOAA assigns a 50 percent chance of above-normal activity, a 35 percent likelihood of a near-normal season and a 15 percent chance of below-normal activity.
• This revision lowers May’s maximum forecast by one named storm and one hurricane while retaining an overall above-average outlook.
• Four named storms have formed so far with none intensifying into hurricanes, matching climatological expectations before the seasonal peak.
• Colorado State University’s mid-August two-week forecast likewise maintains elevated activity projections and underscores the need for continued preparedness.