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NOAA Puts La Niña on Watch With High Odds for Fall Onset

Forecasters expect a weak event most likely, with confirmation pending a sustained three-month cooling.

Shown are the average sea-surface temperature anomalies across the globe over the past four weeks. The temperatures in the eastern Pacific in the center of the map, near the equator, are slightly below average.
The graph shows that there was a 66% chance of La Niña developing from September to November, with chances now rising to 71% from October to December.
La Nina refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. (FILE)

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, giving about a 71% chance of development in October–December and 54% through December–February.
  • Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have dipped to the −0.5°C threshold, but an official declaration requires the anomaly to persist as a three‑month average.
  • Current guidance favors a weak La Niña, though NOAA notes roughly a 26% chance the cooling could reach moderate strength.
  • A north-shifted jet stream would tilt the odds toward a warmer, drier winter across the southern United States, including Southern California and Texas, and a cooler, wetter pattern for the Pacific Northwest and the northern tier.
  • Meteorologists in India say North India, including Delhi-NCR, is likely to see a marginally colder winter, with experts cautioning that year-to-year variability and ongoing warming can temper typical La Niña effects.