Overview

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña watch with a 71% chance of development in October–December and about 54% for December–February, while current conditions remain ENSO‑neutral.
• Multiple forecast models project any event to be weak and brief, with many runs returning to neutral by late winter or spring, according to CPC and private‑sector meteorologists.
• La Niña typically reduces Atlantic wind shear, and experts say this pattern raises the odds of more storms in October and November, with NOAA noting November activity often doubles versus neutral years.
• Expected U.S. winter tendencies include wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley and drier, warmer conditions across the southern tier, a concern for already parched Las Vegas.
• India’s meteorological officials and independent experts warn that La Niña years often bring colder winters and possible cold waves, though they stress probabilities and short duration limit confidence in impacts.