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2mo ago

NOAA Predicts Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season as NHC Monitors First Area of Interest

Warm ocean temperatures under neutral ENSO conditions underpin NOAA’s forecast for 13 to 19 named storms this season.

National Hurricane Center map showing a disturbance offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast.
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A map from AccuWeather shows when impacts from two potential tropical storms could hit the US.

Overview

  • NOAA’s outlook gives a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season with 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
  • The National Hurricane Center is tracking a non-tropical low off the southeastern U.S. coast that has a 10 percent chance of developing into subtropical or tropical storm Andrea within seven days.
  • Alongside the Atlantic system, the NHC is watching a Pacific disturbance off southern Mexico that carries a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by the weekend.
  • Record-warm sea-surface temperatures across the Caribbean and Atlantic, amplified by climate change, are fueling forecasts for stronger and more frequent storms.
  • Staffing and funding shortfalls at NOAA and FEMA have raised concerns about the agencies’ capacity to deliver accurate forecasts and coordinate an effective hurricane response.