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3mo ago

NOAA Predicts Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season with Potential Early Storm Formation

Forecasters anticipate 13-19 named storms, with 6-10 hurricanes, as a tropical system nears development off Mexico's coast.

Hurricane Helene closes in on the Florida coast in this NOAA satellite image from Sept. 26, 2024. Helene was the continental United States’ deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
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A 3D Render of a the Caribbean Sea from Sept. 26, 2024 showing Hurricane Helene approach the Big Bend of Florida.
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Overview

  • The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and is forecasted to have a 60% chance of above-average activity, according to NOAA.
  • Projections include 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes, driven by ENSO-neutral conditions and warm ocean temperatures.
  • A low-pressure system near Mexico's southern coast has a 70-80% chance of developing into the season's first tropical storm early next week.
  • Other forecasters, including Colorado State University and AccuWeather, align with NOAA's predictions of an active season.
  • The 2024 hurricane season was particularly deadly, with Hurricane Helene causing 241 deaths, underscoring the importance of early preparedness.