Overview
- NOAA’s July GFDL SPEAR ensemble and observed sea-surface temperatures show the 2026 El Niño is intensifying with Niño-region anomalies near or above +2°C and a 97% chance it will persist through northern-hemisphere spring 2027.
- Forecasters say the event could peak in the October–December 2026 period but models project a gradual weakening after winter even as uncertainty remains because there are few close historical analogs.
- NOAA has downgraded the Atlantic hurricane outlook to a 75% probability of below-normal activity with an expected 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes while warning the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical coasts still face short‑notice storm risk.
- Governments across South America are reallocating emergency funds and activating preparedness measures, with countries such as Ecuador, Chile and Brazil taking steps to protect power systems, food supplies and flood-prone infrastructure.
- Scientists warn the event will produce stark regional contrasts—drought and heat stress in parts of the northern Andes and Amazon and heavier rains, river rises and flood risk in southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and sections of Argentina—putting pressure on agriculture, energy and public health systems.