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5d ago

NOAA Issues La Niña Watch, Lifts Odds to 71% for Fall and 54% for Winter

CPC cites cooling in the equatorial Pacific with model agreement pointing to a likely weak event.

A pedestrian jumps over a flooded puddle in San Francisco on Feb. 4.
Image
File photo: Heavy snow falls as a person walks along U.S. Route 42 in Florence, Kentucky on January 6, 2025.
Sea surface temperature anomalies for September 10, 2025. Credit: NOAA/NCEP/CPC

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Sept. 11 raised the chance of La Niña to 71% for October–December and 54% for December–February.
  • Observed signals include near- to below-average sea surface temperatures, strengthened subsurface cooling to about 200 meters, and easterly low-level wind anomalies.
  • All North American Multi-Model Ensemble members support development through autumn, even as some international guidance leans neutral.
  • Typical patterns favor wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions across the southern U.S., while Northern California and the Bay Area show no clear precipitation tilt in CPC outlooks.
  • Forecasters expect a weak, possibly short-lived event that could mark a second straight La Niña and may also modulate the Atlantic hurricane season.