Overview

• Forecasters expect activity to begin late Thursday, with strongest conditions from evening into early Friday and timing subject to real‑time updates.
• NOAA’s viewlines show potential visibility across 12–16 U.S. states from New York to Idaho, much of Canada, and the UK mainly over Scotland and occasionally northern England.
• The watch calls for G2 (moderate) storming, with Kp around 5–6 and a likely step down to G1 levels on Friday as effects wane.
• SWPC warns of minor, manageable impacts to satellites, radio communications and power systems, with cloud cover and local light pollution heavily influencing what observers see.
• Multiple Earth‑directed CMEs launched Oct. 11–13 from active region AR4246 are driving the event, and a southward Bz would favor broader aurora; NOAA’s 30‑minute aurora map and apps provide live guidance.