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NOAA Issues G3 Geomagnetic Storm Watch as Earth-Directed CME Targets Dec. 9

Forecasters say the solar eruption could push auroras into mid‑latitudes with only limited risks to power and satellites.

The Northern Lights shimmer over homes in Nuuk, Greenland, on Feb. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)
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A strong solar storm arriving Monday night could push the northern lights as far south as California, though forecasters say the chances remain low.

Overview

  • NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has a strong geomagnetic storm watch in effect for Tuesday, with the CME expected to arrive early to midday UTC on December 9.
  • The disturbance stems from a full‑halo CME launched by an M8.1 flare from Active Region 4299 on December 6, with models indicating Kp values around 5–7.
  • Aurora visibility could extend across roughly 15–22 U.S. states from the lower Midwest to Oregon, as well as southern Canada and parts of northern Europe, given clear, dark skies.
  • Forecast confidence hinges on the CME’s magnetic orientation (Bz) and arrival timing, which carry several hours of uncertainty that will determine how far south lights appear.
  • Agencies caution about limited, minor effects to power systems, satellites, GPS and HF communications, and they are monitoring Region 4299 for further M‑ and possible X‑class flares.