Overview

• NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts G1–G2 geomagnetic conditions from CMEs launched October 11–13, with effects expected through October 17.
• Forecast guidance points to the strongest activity late Thursday UTC (roughly 4–7 p.m. EDT), with Kp values near 5–6 under peak conditions.
• Aurora visibility could extend across much of Canada and into northern U.S. states from New York to Idaho, with UK prospects reaching as far south as Yorkshire, weather permitting.
• Observers and forecasters identify sunspot region 4246 as a primary source of the recent Earth-directed eruptions.
• Officials note potential but manageable impacts to satellites, GPS and power systems, and advise using NOAA’s 30‑minute aurora forecast and seeking dark skies for best viewing.