Overview
- A long-duration M1.4 flare from active region AR4549 on October 6 launched a coronal mass ejection that, together with additional eruptions on October 7–8, is now forecast to reach Earth and disturb the magnetosphere.
- NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch for the primary October 9 window, with models suggesting activity may begin rising around 11 p.m. ET on Oct. 8 and peak in the predawn hours of Oct. 9.
- Forecasters say the event could push the auroral oval farther south than usual, giving parts of Canada, much of northern U.S. states and pockets of the U.K. and southern Australia elevated chances to see aurora on Oct. 9 and possibly on Oct. 10–11.
- Agencies warn effects on technology are possible but likely minor to moderate at high latitudes, with risks to satellites, high-frequency radio, navigation accuracy and localized power-grid voltage if the interplanetary magnetic field turns strongly southward (negative Bz).
- Visibility will vary by local weather, darkness and light pollution, so observers are advised to monitor real-time SWPC updates, seek dark northern horizons, and use night mode or long-exposure phone/camera settings to capture weaker displays.