Overview
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised its confidence on Thursday, July 9, saying there is an 81% chance the developing El Niño will reach the top 'very strong' category in October–December and a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.
- Current observations show unusually warm Pacific waters with central equatorial sea-surface temperatures about +1.2°C above average and eastern anomalies up to +2.7°C, plus a deep reservoir of subsurface heat that can sustain and prolong the event.
- Forecasters say a very strong El Niño shifts large-scale wind and storm patterns, increasing the chance of a wetter winter across the U.S. southern tier, reducing Atlantic hurricane activity, and boosting storm and typhoon risk in the eastern and central Pacific.
- International and national agencies including the WMO, UN partners, NOAA and regional forecasters are stepping up seasonal advisories and preparedness planning, and groups such as Colorado State University have already lowered their Atlantic hurricane outlooks.
- Scientists stress these are probabilistic outcomes not certainties and warn the event is developing on top of long-term ocean warming from human-caused climate change, which can amplify impacts and raise the odds of new temperature and extreme-weather records.