Overview

• NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts active to G1 conditions from Oct. 11–13 driven by a recurrent negative‑polarity coronal‑hole high‑speed stream, with the highest odds on Sunday, Oct. 12.
• The outlook projects the Kp index near 5, with reporting pointing to a potential peak window between 5 a.m. and 5 p.m. EDT on Oct. 12 and activity possibly carrying into early Oct. 13.
• Potential visibility includes Alaska and the northern parts of Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York and Maine, as well as broad areas of Canada.
• How far south the aurora reaches will depend on the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz turning and holding southward, while a northward Bz would limit lower‑latitude sightings.
• Solar maximum conditions and equinox‑related effects increase the odds of activity, but observers should monitor NOAA’s 30‑minute aurora forecast or trusted apps and seek dark northern horizons away from city lights.