Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center raised its outlook on Thursday, Aug. 13, saying there is more than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter and a 69% chance the October–December index will reach levels that would exceed the modern record.
- Ocean observations show extraordinary heat in the tropical Pacific with sea-surface anomalies above 2°C in parts of the east and subsurface warmth up to about 10°C above normal, signs of a deepening, long-lasting event.
- Forecasters say the event will likely boost global average temperatures and make record-hot years more likely, with many models projecting a late fall or early winter peak.
- A very strong El Niño raises the odds of a wetter, stormier winter for parts of the southern United States and California, drier conditions for regions like Australia and parts of Asia, and reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic with more activity in the eastern and central Pacific.
- Humanitarian and government actors are shifting from assessment to action because agencies such as the World Food Programme warn of major food-security and supply-chain risks affecting millions in vulnerable regions.