Overview
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said in mid-October that there is about an 83% chance the current El Niño will reach record intensity between October and December 2026, with peak strength likely around December.
- Ocean measurements show very large sea-surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, including Niño 3.4 near +2.1°C and Niño 1+2 up to +3.9°C, signals that support a near-record event.
- Forecasters expect above-average precipitation for the U.S. West Coast and the southern jet stream corridor and above-average winter temperatures across more than half of the contiguous United States.
- State and regional officials have begun preparing for heavy rains, mountain snow, floods and landslides, with California declaring a state of emergency and South American regions already reporting storm impacts.
- Scientists note that human-driven warming raises the baseline ocean and air temperatures, which can amplify how much moisture storms carry and thereby increase the chance of intense rainfall and rapid flood or landslide events.