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yesterday

NOAA Forecasts Above-Average 2025 Hurricane Season Amid Federal Staffing Shortages

The agency predicts 13–19 named storms and warns of degraded forecast accuracy due to a 30% workforce reduction at the National Weather Service.

Image
Hurricane Helene closes in on the Florida coast in this NOAA satellite image from Sept. 26, 2024. Helene was the continental United States’ deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
FILE - Dustin Holmes, second from right, holds hands with his girlfriend, Hailey Morgan, while returning to their flooded home with her children Aria Skye Hall, 7, right, and Kyle Ross, 4, in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Sept. 27, 2024, in Crystal River, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack, File)
The National Weather Service, as a subsidiary agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has been plagued by staffing cuts and leadership gaps in its regional offices across the country, including the office serving Houston.

Overview

  • NOAA's 2025 hurricane outlook anticipates 13–19 named storms, including 6–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes, with a 60% chance of above-normal activity.
  • Key drivers of the forecast include elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and a strong African monsoon pattern.
  • Staffing shortages at the National Weather Service, with 30% fewer employees and vacant leadership roles in 30 offices, raise concerns about forecast precision.
  • Reduced data collection, such as fewer weather balloons and radar technicians, is expected to widen error margins in storm tracking and intensity predictions.
  • Officials are urging communities to prepare now, highlighting the potential for rapid storm intensification and the challenges posed by resource constraints.