Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which on Thursday ended La Niña and posted an El Niño Watch, puts the chance of El Niño forming in May–July at 61% and continuing through 2026.
- El Niño is a Pacific pattern marked by warmer-than-normal equatorial waters, and scientists now see a large east‑moving pocket of heat called a Kelvin wave driven by bursts of westerly winds that can jump‑start the event.
- The new outlook assigns about a 25% probability of a very strong episode, while some model runs and experts flag a possible “super” event, yet forecasters stress the spring predictability barrier keeps strength and timing uncertain.
- Typical knock‑on effects include fewer Atlantic hurricanes and a wetter storm track across the southern U.S., though outcomes are not guaranteed and past strong events left California with mixed rainfall results.
- In India, a developing El Niño tends to weaken the southwest monsoon, and recent April hail and heavy rain that damaged wheat in Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana have already raised concerns about farm incomes and food prices.